Executive Summary Markets have become increasingly volatileas geopolitical risk re-emerges as a key driver. • The Iran conflict has triggered a major global energy shock, pushing oil prices sharply higher. • Central banks remain cautious, balancing falling inflation against rising external risks. • Global equities are mixed, with further rotation away from the U.S. toward better-value regions. • Gold and [...]
Executive Summary · Markets remain driven by interest-rate expectations, with investors increasingly confident that easing cycles will continue in 2026. · Inflation continues to moderate, though progress remains uneven across developed economies. · Global equities advance cautiously, supported by liquidity expectations rather than strong earnings growth. · Regional divergence persists: U.S. valuations remain stretched, while [...]
Executive Summary · Markets enter 2026 cautiously optimistic, with rate-cut expectations firmly embedded across developed economies. · Central banks signal patience, balancing easing inflation against fragile growth. · Global equities start the year mixed, supported by policy expectations rather than earnings momentum. · Valuations remain a key differentiator: UK and Europe offer value, while U.S. [...]
Executive Summary The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.2% for 2025, but warned that the outlook remains fragile. The Bank of England held its base rate at 4.0%, citing sticky inflation and the risk of a “bumpy landing”. UK inflation remained steady at 3.8% in September, underscoring resistance to quicker [...]
Executive Summary Fed cuts rates for the first time in 2025, easing to 4.0–4.25% as inflation moderates. U.S. tariffs face Supreme Court scrutiny, adding policy risk and market volatility. UK holds base rate at 4.0%, citing sticky inflation; QT scaled back to calm gilt markets. Global equities mixed: U.S. lifted by Fed cut, UK and [...]
