Executive Summary Markets became more cautious in September as the prolonged Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns about inflation and interest rates. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, while the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raised U.S. rates to 3.75%–4.0%, signalling that the period of falling interest rates may be coming [...]
Executive Summary Global equity markets continued to perform reasonably well through August, despite renewed geopolitical tensions at the end of the month. The Iran war remains the dominant external risk, with renewed fighting at the end of August pushing Brent crude back above $90 a barrel and raising fresh concerns about inflation and interest rates. [...]
Executive Summary Global markets continued to recover during July as investors looked beyond geopolitical headlines and focused once again on economic fundamentals. Andy Burnham became the UK's new Prime Minister, with financial markets reacting positively to the prospect of policy continuity and a renewed focus on long-term investment and regional growth. The Iran conflictremainsunresolved, although [...]
Executive Summary • Markets became noticeably calmer during June despite continued geopolitical uncertainty. • Oil prices fell significantly from their spring highs as hopes of a lasting ceasefire between the United States and Iran improved sentiment. • Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation, but UK financial markets reacted with surprising resilience. • Central banks [...]
Executive Summary The Iran war remains the dominant driver of global markets, with energy prices, inflation expectations and central bank policy all heavily influenced by developments in the Middle East. Oil prices remain elevated and highly volatile as markets continue to react to conflicting headlines regarding potential peace negotiations. Investors have become increasingly sceptical of [...]
Executive Summary The Iran war has become the dominant global macro driver, triggering the largest oil supply shock in decades. • Oil prices have been volatile, spiking sharply before falling on ceasefire hopes — butremaining structurally elevated. • Central banks now face a more complex backdrop, balancing falling inflation with renewed energy-driven price pressures. • Global [...]
Executive Summary Markets have become increasingly volatileas geopolitical risk re-emerges as a key driver. • The Iran conflict has triggered a major global energy shock, pushing oil prices sharply higher. • Central banks remain cautious, balancing falling inflation against rising external risks. • Global equities are mixed, with further rotation away from the U.S. toward better-value regions. • Gold and [...]
Executive Summary · Markets remain driven by interest-rate expectations, with investors increasingly confident that easing cycles will continue in 2026. · Inflation continues to moderate, though progress remains uneven across developed economies. · Global equities advance cautiously, supported by liquidity expectations rather than strong earnings growth. · Regional divergence persists: U.S. valuations remain stretched, while [...]
Executive Summary · Markets enter 2026 cautiously optimistic, with rate-cut expectations firmly embedded across developed economies. · Central banks signal patience, balancing easing inflation against fragile growth. · Global equities start the year mixed, supported by policy expectations rather than earnings momentum. · Valuations remain a key differentiator: UK and Europe offer value, while U.S. [...]
Executive Summary The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.2% for 2025, but warned that the outlook remains fragile. The Bank of England held its base rate at 4.0%, citing sticky inflation and the risk of a “bumpy landing”. UK inflation remained steady at 3.8% in September, underscoring resistance to quicker [...]
