Executive Summary The Iran war has become the dominant global macro driver, triggering the largest oil supply shock in decades. • Oil prices have been volatile, spiking sharply before falling on ceasefire hopes — butremaining structurally elevated. • Central banks now face a more complex backdrop, balancing falling inflation with renewed energy-driven price pressures. • Global [...]
Executive Summary Markets have become increasingly volatileas geopolitical risk re-emerges as a key driver. • The Iran conflict has triggered a major global energy shock, pushing oil prices sharply higher. • Central banks remain cautious, balancing falling inflation against rising external risks. • Global equities are mixed, with further rotation away from the U.S. toward better-value regions. • Gold and [...]
Executive Summary · Markets remain driven by interest-rate expectations, with investors increasingly confident that easing cycles will continue in 2026. · Inflation continues to moderate, though progress remains uneven across developed economies. · Global equities advance cautiously, supported by liquidity expectations rather than strong earnings growth. · Regional divergence persists: U.S. valuations remain stretched, while [...]
Executive Summary · Markets enter 2026 cautiously optimistic, with rate-cut expectations firmly embedded across developed economies. · Central banks signal patience, balancing easing inflation against fragile growth. · Global equities start the year mixed, supported by policy expectations rather than earnings momentum. · Valuations remain a key differentiator: UK and Europe offer value, while U.S. [...]
BUDGET UPDATE 2025 After months of speculation, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented the Autumn Budget on 26 November, unveiling a substantial £26 billion package of tax increases, alongside targeted spending measures. Her aim? To address the UK’s persistent inflation, rising unemployment and high interest rates – pressures weighing heavily on households and businesses. Reeves positioned [...]
Executive Summary The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.2% for 2025, but warned that the outlook remains fragile. The Bank of England held its base rate at 4.0%, citing sticky inflation and the risk of a “bumpy landing”. UK inflation remained steady at 3.8% in September, underscoring resistance to quicker [...]
Executive Summary Fed cuts rates for the first time in 2025, easing to 4.0–4.25% as inflation moderates. U.S. tariffs face Supreme Court scrutiny, adding policy risk and market volatility. UK holds base rate at 4.0%, citing sticky inflation; QT scaled back to calm gilt markets. Global equities mixed: U.S. lifted by Fed cut, UK and [...]
Tariffs take centre stage again The U.S. stock market lost momentum in early August, retreating slightly from July’s all-time highs as investors grappled with renewed tariff uncertainty. President Trump announced that the “blanket tariff” proposal remains under consideration, despite widespread criticism from business leaders. Markets initially shrugged off the rhetoric, but volatility picked up after [...]
The U.S. stock market has risen by over 25% since the 8th April, reaching a new all-time high. The rally began when President Trump announced a deferral of the tariffs he had introduced on the 2nd April. However, the significance of this move seems to have been lost on President Trump, who remarked that he [...]
It’s been an eventful few weeks. In the last few hours while writing this, it seems a tenuous ceasefire has been agreed with Israel and Iran. After 10 days of tit for tat missile and rocket exchanges, the oil price surged by $10 a barrel, however, it started to drop almost immediately. The US got [...]
